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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround receives the award. However, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and recent strugglers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still